CNN, in its analysis, paints a bleak picture for Ukraine regarding the possible outcome of the upcoming Trump–Putin summit in Alaska, saying it “resembles a slow defeat for Kyiv.” According to the network, the Russian president is attempting—opposite a former real estate tycoon and in a location symbolic because it was sold by Russia to the United States 158 years ago for $7.2 million—to “sell his own ‘deal of the century,’ forcing Kyiv to cede territories it has not yet managed to capture.”

According to the analysis’ author, “The circumstances surrounding Friday’s summit so heavily favor Moscow that it’s obvious why Putin seized the opportunity—after months of sham negotiations—and it’s hard to imagine any bilateral deal emerging that wouldn’t devastate Ukraine.”

Following the Wall Street Journal’s revelation of Putin’s proposal, CNN comments that “the Kremlin’s occupant pushed the idea of seizing territories without fighting and found a willing taker in Witkoff, who in the past has shown he does not fully understand Ukrainian sovereignty or the complexities of asking a country, in the fourth year of its invasion, to simply abandon cities where it has lost thousands of men defending.”

The analysis notes that “Russia is close to encircling two key cities in Donetsk—Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka—and may besiege the Ukrainian forces defending them in the coming weeks. Ceding these two cities is something Kyiv might do anyway to preserve manpower over the next months. The rest of Donetsk—mainly Kramatorsk and Sloviansk—faces far bleaker prospects. Thousands of civilians live there now, and Moscow would relish scenes of cities being evacuated and Russian troops entering without a single shot fired.”

When addressing the question of “what Ukraine might gain from the ‘exchange’ Trump referred to,” CNN answers: “Perhaps the small slices of border areas Russia holds in Sumy and Kharkiv—part of Putin’s supposed ‘security zone’—but realistically, not much more.”

At the same time, the analysis points out that even achieving a ceasefire is “difficult” because “Putin has long argued that the immediate ceasefire demanded for months by the US, Europe, and Ukraine is impossible until technical work is done on monitoring and logistics. It’s unlikely he has changed his mind now that his forces have the upper hand along the eastern front.”

“To his credit, Putin has made clear from the start what he wants: the subjugation or conquest of all of Ukraine and a strategic reset with the US that involves abandoning Kyiv. His aide, Yuri Ushakov, called Alaska an excellent place to discuss economic cooperation between Washington and Moscow and hinted that a new summit in Russia has already been proposed,” CNN’s analysis continues.

Two Factors That Have Changed Trump’s Stance

CNN notes there are two factors that weren’t on the table when Trump “blew up” at Zelensky in the White House.

“First, we can’t ignore that India and China—one risking 25% tariffs in two weeks, the other still waiting to learn what damage it will suffer—have both contacted the Kremlin in recent days. They may have encouraged Putin to meet Trump, or at least to again offer rhetorical support for diplomacy, and they may be concerned about their energy imports being jeopardized by Trump’s secondary sanctions.

However, Putin didn’t need much convincing to accept the official US invitation for a bilateral meeting—something his team has long promoted as a path to peace in Ukraine. And another sanctions deadline passed on Friday, almost unnoticed amid the Alaska and land-deal commotion.”

“Second, Trump claims his thinking about Putin has evolved, using words like ‘disappointed,’ ‘disgusting,’ and ‘playing me’ about the Kremlin chief. While Trump seems able to easily restrain himself from causing real pain to Moscow—letting threats and deadlines pass without result—he is surrounded by allies and Republicans who will remind him how far he has gone in the past.”

“Many things could go right. But the stage is set for something more menacing. Consider Putin’s mindset: Trump’s third sanctions threat has vanished, his forces are entering a period of strategic gain at the front, he’s received his first US invitation in a decade to discuss peace in Ukraine without Ukraine present, and he’s talking about a deal where he doesn’t even have to fight to get part of the land he wants. And that’s before the former KGB spy begins working his apparent magic on Trump. Friday is six days away, but even from this distance it looks like a slow defeat for Kyiv,” CNN concludes.

Zelensky’s Participation in Question

While the US and Russian leaders seem to have decided on a territorial bargain for Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky declared yesterday that his country would enter no such negotiations. He also expressed his desire to be present at the Trump–Putin meeting, saying no agreement could be valid without Kyiv’s approval.

European leaders, after meetings in London, share the same position, while the White House hinted that the Republican president views such a prospect “favorably.”

For his part, the Russian president said he has no problem meeting with Zelensky, while pointing out one key detail: first, the right conditions must be created. And, apparently, those conditions are unlikely to emerge before his closed-door one-on-one with Trump.