Shortly after four o’clock (local time), the French National Assembly will kick off a crucial – another to be absolutely precise – plenary session of the country’s parliament. Prime Minister François Bayrou, who has taken over the reins of the “Hexagon” after months of deliberations and maneuvering in the front and backstage of Emanuel Macron’s administration almost a year ago, puts the fate of his government at the discretion of all the country’s MPs.

Indeed, as the French Prime Minister announced last week in a series of announcements, he will not use Article 49.3, which grants him the right to pass a bill without a vote by Parliament, but will instead invoke Article 49.1, which places the decision and responsibility in the hands of all French MPs.

Bayrou is making this move by taking a significant – even for his political opponents – political risk. The prime minister of France is asking for support to pass one of the most important budgets for the “future of the country,” as he himself notes – budget. Bayrou claims that if in 2026 the country does not cut around €44 billion, there will be no turning back, as its public debt will “choke” both growth and any investment.

But how will French MPs vote, and what is the future of the government?

The four left-wing groups and the two far-right groups, which together have 330 seats (57%) out of 574 filled so far, have made it clear that they will vote against the confidence vote. In detail:

– France Untouchable (71 MPs) will vote against, according to its coordinator, Manuel Beaubard

Manuel Bourbard, who will be the leader of the French government, will be the only one who will be in charge.
– The French Communist Party (17 MPs) will vote against, according to its spokesman, Leon Defontaine

– The Socialist Party (66 MPs) will vote against, according to its first secretary, Olivier Four. However, Socialist deputies must meet to reach a common position, not ruling out a change of position if the government “revises” the budget

– The Ecologists (38 MPs) will vote “against”, according to their general secretary, Marie Todelier

– The National Rally (123 MPs) will vote “against”, according to Marine Le Pen, president of the parliamentary group

The Union of the Right for Democracy (15 MPs) considers it “unthinkable” to give a vote of confidence to the Bayrou government, according to its president, Eric Scioti, without specifying whether it will vote against or abstain.

The four groups of the so-called “community core“, which total 207 deputies, have not all formally expressed their position, although a majority is expected to support the Bairou government:

– The “Together for Democracy” group (Renaissance, 91 MPs) announced through its president, Gabriel Ata,l on 27 August that it would vote in favour of confidence

– The MoDem (36 deputies) is expected to reasonably support François Bayrou, who comes from its ranks

– The Horizons group (34 MPs) has not yet announced its decision

The “Republican Right” (49 deputies) will not vote uniformly: the group’s president, Laurent Vauquier, has announced that he is granting “freedom of vote” to his deputies. For his part, the president of the “Republicans” party and current interior minister, Bruno Retailleau, called for support for the government.

As for the twenty-three deputies from the “Liberties, Independents, Overseas Territories and Territories” group, they have “little chance” of voting for confidence, according to Charles de Courson, one of their key figures.

Finally, the eleven unattached MPs have no party discipline. Former Macronists, various right-wingers, “defectors” from the National Rally… are expected to split their votes between “for”, “against,” and abstention.

The next day, and the numbers

Barring a shocking windfall, François Bayrou is heading for a negative result, which will force him to leave Matignon after little more than eight months in power.

The French President will have the resignation of his country’s government in his hands once again – for the fourth time – as of this afternoon and will have to choose how to proceed in a country where on the one hand his own poll numbers are at an all-time low and on the other hand the “reservoir” for a new person willing to take on the heavy duty is also at the “bottom”.

Macron, according to political analysts, is in constant contact especially with persons from the Socialists who, although they collaborated with Mélenchon to overturn the far-right in the parliamentary elections a year or so ago, they then split their positions and were one of the main reasons why the French President – Macron cited this as an argument – did not finally choose a Prime Minister from the “camp” of the winners…

Hardly the French President chose to dissolve the Parliament and send France back to the polls, but it is good to wait for his own announcement and decisions, as he had overturned all predictions a year ago, just after the European elections and the sweeping victory of the far-right… Given that the coming autumn will be beyond “hot” and crucial for the “Hexagon,” a country that historically, when in crisis, sooner or later also involves the rest of Europe.

As an epilogue, it is worth noting that in the 5th French Republic, 31 Governments have proceeded to a vote of confidence using Article 49.1 and none of them “fell” after the end of the process.