François Bayrou has now joined the long – by the standards of the Fifth French Republic – list of short-lived prime ministers of recent years. After nearly nine months in office, the prime minister Emmanuel Macron appointed several weeks after the 2024 legislative elections essentially decided himself to end the government he led, one which failed to secure alliances either in the French National Assembly or in society at large.

With his remarks today, François Bayrou seemed to choose the manner rather than the timing of the “death” of the political project entrusted to him by the Élysée Palace.

A seasoned politician, fully aware of the outcome of the confidence vote, Bayrou used his 45-minute opening speech – and later, a short intervention from the benches rather than the podium – to emphasize an issue that will certainly concern both France and Europe:

“What will happen with public debt?”

The outgoing prime minister, who will formally resign tomorrow, put forward a question for which no political force in the country currently has a clear answer or concrete plan: “What will happen with public debt?”

Bayrou is accused of presenting a budget plan prioritizing €44 billion in cuts, which he himself described not as a solution but as a “lifeline.” He stressed several times that he never left the centrist political space, but believes this measure would merely stop France’s debt from rising further – not reduce it.

Freed from the burden of governance, Bayrou argued that the problem is not today but the near future – one in which France will be forced to follow policies dictated by creditors, not shaped by its citizens and their needs.

His political “swan song” as prime minister was, in his words and actions, a heroic exit. He encapsulated his political stance in the phrase: “You cannot erase the truth with a vote.”

A centrist, liberal politician, Bayrou is unlikely – though never say never in politics – to attempt a fourth presidential run. What is clear, however, is that he could not provide meaningful support even to his closest ally and friend, President Macron.

But the major issue for France is not only economic, even if Bayrou chose to highlight debt. French society has been living not only on “borrowed” money but also on “borrowed” patience for at least the past four years. Polarization fueled by both the far right and the far left is already shaping living conditions and will strongly influence developments in the coming months. This autumn is expected to be not only critical but also turbulent.

The divisions in the French National Assembly mirror those in society itself.

• The far right insists that money, order, and national recovery depend on absolute control of immigration, deportations, and transforming the welfare state based on citizenship.
• On the other hand, the far left calls for a financial “guillotine” for the wealthy who, they argue, fail to pay their fair share.

Meanwhile, pressing issues for ordinary French citizens – beyond wages and pensions – are education, healthcare, and security, which no political camp, democratic or otherwise, is substantively addressing.

For over a year, the Élysée and Macron have resorted to political maneuvers – such as calling snap legislative elections after the far right’s sweeping victory in the European elections. The outcome, despite Macron’s muted celebration over Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella’s setback, did not empower the left-wing opposition. For Macron, the “enemy of my enemy” has never been a friend.

Yet, the French clearly reject Macron’s handling of power, more so than any particular prime minister. His political maneuvers may not be over, and his ultimate intentions remain unclear, but one of Europe’s most politicized societies is unlikely to remain passive or dormant.

Bayrou’s modest political and personal legacy is not enough to contain public anger, which will officially spill into the streets starting September 10.

The problem for France – whose crises are always of historic and pan-European significance – lies ahead. The “iceberg” has been identified and mapped by many, but no one seems capable of preventing disaster.