Greetings. The shadow cast by the two major tragedies that occurred back to back in recent days continues to weigh heavily on society. And while in the case of Romania it is more likely that we are dealing with human error, in the case of “Violanta” in Trikala there is, of course, responsibility. Before we move on to angry outbursts against individuals and institutions, it would be wise to wait a bit. After all, to be fair, the Fire Service did its job very quickly and within 48 hours revealed what had happened. Whether only the company is responsible—because from the findings it is clear that it bears responsibility, given that corroded propane pipes were found that caused the explosion—whether the underground facilities were illegal or poorly maintained, and whether the fire-safety plans it had submitted for the factory were deficient, we do not yet know. Justice will determine that. It simply becomes ridiculous once again—and disrespectful at this moment—for opposition politics to be played on this issue as well. I would say that it could be considered just as disrespectful for the government to try to prove that the country’s statistics on workplace accidents are very low—we are third from the bottom in workplace accidents in the EU, there’s a nice… backwater for you—but obviously when Karystianou comes out and engages in “grave-robbing” over the tragic accident, in order to return to the (for her) favorable spotlight, enough is enough. That is why the spokesperson Marinakis spoke with such intensity on the issue yesterday (on SKAI), reminding everyone of what the opposition was saying around this time last year about xylene in Tempi.

The exercise with ships and trucks

• I’m moving on to other matters, to take you to yesterday’s meeting held at the Maximos Mansion on traffic congestion, where many interesting things were discussed, with the main focus on efforts to limit truck traffic, which accounts for 20% of morning traffic on Kifissos Avenue. Obviously, when the logistics hub moves from Elaionas to Fyli, there will be some relief, while the government is also considering reopening Kaza, that is, the old National Road. However, a total ban on trucks did not gain traction as an idea, since in an informal consultation conducted by Minister Theodorikakos with the Chambers there were significant reactions. Still, K.M. asked Kikilias to explore with shipowners the scenario of some cargo ships arriving earlier at Piraeus and unloading at 5:30 a.m. instead of 6:30, to provide some breathing room. In addition, a proposal for smart traffic lights will be discussed, as was done in Thessaloniki, since the contractor declared readiness to apply in the Attica Basin the system that relieved central arteries of the co-capital.

Open the doors (let Kouroumplis in too)

• Look, today I have very pleasant news for you from PASOK: we are one step away from the damned needle finally unsticking and the Movement growing wings again, as the late Simitis once said after a reshuffle when he sacked Pachtas. Our leader Nikos tried and tried with his “values code” and “institutional moves” and has now properly begun opening up to all the cadres who left the party after the first memorandum and went mainly to SYRIZA, but also elsewhere. I hear that Nina Kasimati may well come into PASOK’s welcoming green arms (and why not Nina Lotsari too!), having even attended an event by Giannis Sgouros, while I’m told that Panagiotis Kouroumplis—who lately had been spotted in Kasselakis’s party—is also positive, under conditions, to our president’s invitation. They just shouldn’t forget Bistis, because I hear the man is on a departure trajectory from the New Left.

Olga is still fuming…

• A source told me that meanwhile Olga, who is on a ministerial trip to India, has not yet cooled down and is cursing gods and demons—or rather the Maximos Mansion—because, as she says, “they’re not covering her.” I learn that she was told officially (not by the Maximos Mansion, mind you): look, either sort out your personal matters with your ex-husband and be done with it, or go home and do whatever you want… kill each other freely, or something along those lines; in any case, she was sent a message that they won’t be dealing with her much longer. I’m waiting to see the next episode, which is expected to be filmed at the court hearing of the case in a few days.

The agreement with the French

• Beyond the stroll at the Salamis Naval Base and the tour of the Kimon, today’s arrival of the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Karin Vautrin, and her meetings with both Nikos Dendias and K.M. are of particular importance, as talks are underway with the French on renewing the defense cooperation agreement that Mitsotakis signed with Macron a few years ago in Paris, when we ordered the first Belharra. The negotiation will not be simple and will take time, but I understand that the intention on both sides is to move toward renewal. Specifically, the French defense minister will be welcomed by Nikos Dendias at the Salamis Naval Base (at 10:30 a.m.), followed by a meeting aboard the frigate Kimon. Immediately afterward, Karin Vautrin will head to the Salamis Shipyards, which have undertaken the construction of metal blocks for the FDI frigates, having expanded their cooperation with Naval Group. It is no coincidence that at the shipyards—besides the president, Giorgos Koros—the president and CEO of Naval Group himself, Pierre-Éric Pommellet, will also be present. Let us recall that the French of Naval Group have, as is well known, submitted a proposal to include Greece in the FDI frigate program with the sale of three more—built at the Skaramangas shipyards—with a production line and cooperation with Greek companies. This is being examined as a proposal. After all this, Catherine Vautrin will go to the Maximos Mansion to meet the Prime Minister.

The… upgrade

• The big issue for the Stock Exchange is whether it will be upgraded to developed market status by MSCI this coming August; however, developments may come earlier, from STOXX. Specifically, in April, STOXX—controlled by Deutsche Bank—may announce its decision on the status of the Athens Exchange, as the Greek market is already on the Watch List. A little earlier, on March 31, MSCI will announce, as part of its Annual Market Classification Review, whether Greece will be upgraded to Developed Market status (unless MSCI itself officially shifts the date). If MSCI’s decision is positive, Greece’s reclassification as a developed market is expected to take effect after the market close on August 31, 2026. Subsequently, on September 21, 2026, the corresponding reclassification by the FTSE index is expected to take effect.

OPAP stays, PPC a question mark

• Now, in contrast to JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley keeps OPAP among the five MSCI Greece stocks after the upgrade, while it describes the inclusion of PPC as “possible” and removes Jumbo and OTE shares from the list. The lion’s share of inflows from an upgrade will go to banking stocks, especially National Bank, with total positive inflows of $287 million, compared with $233 million for Eurobank, $208 million for Piraeus Bank, and $196 million for Alpha, while OPAP is expected to see net inflows of $121 million. In any case, Morgan Stanley also points out that after the upgrade the Athens Exchange will be a small fish in a big lake: MSCI Greece is estimated to have a weight of 0.06% in the MSCI World index, whereas its current weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index stands at 0.57%.

The “tricks” in Chinese yards to conceal the shadow fleet

• The game with shadow-fleet vessels is getting very serious.
  There are certain incidents which, no matter how “technical” they may sound, ring extremely loud alarm bells. The recent episode at a Chinese yard, involving a sanctioned tanker that “borrowed” the identity of a newbuild that has not yet… even touched the water, clearly falls into this category. For the first time, we are seeing identity theft of a vessel that is still under construction. Not a scrapped ship, not a “zombie” IMO recycled from old paperwork, but the IMO number of a tanker that is being legitimately built at a Chinese shipyard. And this is precisely where concern begins — not theoretical, but entirely practical. When a sanctioned vessel is sailing through the Straits of Singapore, carrying Russian or Iranian oil, and appears in systems as a “newbuild from China,” the problem does not concern only the dark side of the shadow fleet. It concerns the shipping ecosystem itself. Because if the IMO number — the ship’s absolute “tax ID” — can be used prematurely, before a newbuild is even delivered, then a dangerous grey zone opens up. Today it is one sanctioned Aframax. Tomorrow, who can guarantee that an ordinary shipowner, a shipyard, a bank or a classification society will not become unintentionally entangled, simply because they are looking at “clean” paperwork? Who monitors what happens around newbuildings before they are even delivered? And who will be exposed if such practices become widespread? China has every reason to protect the reputation of its shipyards. Europe and the United States are pressing for safety and transparency. And Greek shipping, which has invested billions in Chinese yards, has absolutely no margin to find itself “by accident” in the same frame as the shadow fleet. This incident is not merely another inventive sanctions-evasion trick. It is a warning. And those in Athens, Piraeus or the major shipping offices who read it as a “distant problem” may soon be forced to see it much closer than they would like.

Marios Iliopoulos: On capitalism, shipping ministers, values, seamanship, etc.

• From his very first sentence, Marios Iliopoulos set the tone of his speech during the event for the cutting of the New Year’s cake of the Panhellenic Seamen’s Federation: a capitalist, but with limits. Speaking at a sectoral event, the owner of Seajets stressed that entrepreneurship without values leads to conflict and the loss of common sense. Criticism of the political scene was not absent. He thanked the current Minister of Shipping and Island Policy for attending the event, but did not spare the previous leadership of the ministry, which he described as the worst in coastal shipping and maritime affairs since 1985. His message was clear: the state, shipowners and trade unions must cooperate harmoniously for the sector to function. The central figures were Greek seafarers. Iliopoulos spoke about seamanship. At Seajets, he emphasized, the relationship of trust and cohesion with seafarers resembles a family, and this relationship is what keeps him in the sector despite his other business activities. He underlined the importance of balance between shipowners, seafarers and trade unionism, and warned that the dominance of extreme approaches harms the sector as a whole. In closing, he sent a message against division, placing emphasis on maritime education and the attraction of young seafarers, calling for respect for values, cohesion and pride, so that Greek shipping remains a protagonist in the economy.

Shipping looks ahead

• In shipping we often hear words about innovation, digital transformation and the green transition. Theory is turning into practice through initiatives such as the Memorandum of Cooperation between the University of Nicosia / UNIC Athens and Laskaridis Shipping Co. Ltd. of Panos Laskaridis, which will be signed this afternoon in Athens, in the presence of Cyprus’s Deputy Minister of Shipping, Marina Hadjimanolis. The agreement touches the core of shipping’s real challenges — namely, how artificial intelligence and big-data analytics can become tools of everyday operational efficiency rather than theoretical concepts discussed at conferences. The interesting element is that the agreement is not limited to the environmental footprint, even though emissions, fuels and decarbonization targets are at the forefront. It goes one step further: predictive maintenance, route optimization, decision-support systems — in other words, all those things shipping companies know they need but often struggle to implement in practice. In the background, the provision for utilizing automated operational data and for creating an AI Hub for shipping carries its own significance. It shows that the discussion is shifting from “what regulations require” to “how real expertise is built,” with universities and shipping companies speaking the same language. At a time when shipping is under pressure from regulatory frameworks, costs and geopolitical uncertainty, such collaborations send the message that those who invest in knowledge will have a say tomorrow.

Tuition fee increases

• Should I say it came as a surprise? I wouldn’t be honest, because this is more or less how we all imagined it — even though at the beginning they were selling some… nonsense that the goal was not tuition increases but expanding each school’s capacity, meaning the number of students, the services offered, and similar things. The reference is to the wave of acquisitions of private schools we have seen, to the point that there is virtually no private school left that could be sold while remaining in the hands of its old owners. As a reader informs the column by name, “recently the Erasmeios Greek-German School proceeded with an excessive increase in tuition fees, a fact that has provoked strong reactions from dozens of parents.”

The 11+1 milestones achieved at the Stock Exchange

• The Athens Avenue has quite a few allies on its side, helping it conquer new peaks continuously. Some stocks renewed their records, while certain new protagonists also emerged. Three of the four systemic banks extended their multi-year highs, with the exception of National Bank, which corrected in a controlled manner. Eurobank climbed above €4.3, a 10-year high, having received a vote of confidence from BofA, which named it a top pick in Greece while simultaneously raising its target price to €5.64. Alpha Bank came within one “step” of €4.2, its highest level since November 2015. Piraeus Bank extended its 5-year record, reaching the fringes of €8.8. PPC is heading full speed toward €20, a price it last saw about 18 years ago, specifically in July 2008. GEK TERNA reached €33 and has entered the final stretch to “break” its record high of €33.67 (November 1999). At the same time, Motor Oil is very close to €34 for the first time. Aegean “took off” above €15, stopping at €15.1, which constitutes a new all-time high. Among the winners was also the Viohalco group, with the parent company’s share breaking the €13 “barrier.” Cenergy approached €19 and ElvalHalcor closed at €4.65, a new 18.5-year high. The psychological €21 level was surpassed for the first time by Kri Kri. Finally, the performance of Austriacard is particularly impressive, as yesterday it recorded a jump of over 9% and reached €7 — a price it had not seen since September 2023. This is the same stock that just three months ago was trading below €5, at historic lows.

Greek-American eye on real estate

• Quite a few companies were established in recent days, most of them focusing on real estate, which obviously promises significant capital gains. Among them, I single out “Mas Ono Single-Member P.C.,” which was incorporated last Friday, January 16, with the explicit purpose of buying and selling and managing real estate, trading time-share properties, leasing services and the provision of rooms or accommodation units for visitors, among other activities. What struck me was the initial share capital, amounting to €14,000,000, divided into 14,000,000 corporate shares of capital contributions with a nominal value of €1 each, fully paid up upon incorporation. The sole shareholder — having contributed the €14 million — is the American company “Mas Ono LLC,” based in Stockton, USA, represented at incorporation by lawyer Orestis Omran-Koukouvitakis. Management and representation of Mas Ono IKE were assigned for an indefinite period to Ioannis Liveris. This is the well-known Giannos Liveris in the Greek market, a collaborator of shipowner G. Oikonomou, who has appeared from time to time in various energy companies and until 1999 served as a senior advisor to Socrates Kokkalis at Intracom. The real estate company is said to belong to the Greek-American Spanou family.

Rumors about Real Consulting

• The share of technology company Real Consulting, which trades at €6.28 with a market capitalization of €133.3 million, has recorded a rise of +21.7% over one month. The surge from €5.16 at the end of December to current levels is not due solely to the business initiatives of Nikos Vardinogiannis, who controls 50.85% of the share capital. Real Consulting has just completed the acquisition of Smart UX in Romania and increased its stake to 97% in January. The goal of the acquisition is penetration into the utilities sector of Southeast Europe. Eurobank Equities had set a target price of €6.20 for the share, a level that Real Consulting has already exceeded, while trading volumes are particularly elevated. Rumors are circulating in the market that there is an agreement with a strong shipping group that will introduce part of its activities into the listed company. What can I say? These are rumors, but I don’t quite understand why a powerful shipowner would introduce part of his activities through Real Consulting instead of doing so directly, in order to reap all the capital gains himself. This particular rumor strongly recalls the Athens Stock Exchange of 1999 — yet, one way or another, the share keeps rising. Market sources, however, speak of discussions and processes that are under way, with all scenarios open, even that of a merger.

Cyberattack

• The Hellenic Capital Market Commission, together with cybersecurity specialists, is investigating the attack recently suffered by Euroxx. The brokerage firm itself announced the cyberattack, stating that there is no indication of damage or data leakage. For security reasons, the investment firm proceeded with a temporary, preventive suspension of certain systems, and restoration is being carried out gradually.

A difficult mission: Euronext struggles to attract shipping companies to the ASE

• The assumption of management of ATHEX by Euronext brings dramatic content changes to the Athens Stock Exchange. Greek shipowners, who control 20% of the global fleet, are financed by Greek banking systems but list their shares and tradable bonds everywhere except Athens. With €14.5 billion in shipping loans on their books, Greek banks see a significant opportunity. The upgrade of Euronext’s infrastructure — electronic trading, liquidity, international visibility — could turn Athens into a credible venue for shipping IPOs as well as for the trading of shipping bond issues. To date, Greek shipowners show a preference for Oslo, London and New York for reasons of confidentiality, tax certainty and, above all, market size, as the investor base is far larger. Athens is trying to offer something Greek shipping companies do not currently have: proximity and co-location with Greek banking financing, absolute knowledge of the sector and — most importantly — guarantees that the Greek tax system will not suddenly “discover” new obligations. So far, however, these efforts do not seem to be yielding results.

The euro–dollar relationship determines the stock-market game

• Markets have fully grasped the plan of the Trump administration, which is attempting to address the debt, deficit and competitiveness problems of the U.S. economy through a controlled depreciation of the dollar. It already takes $1.2 to buy €1, and technical analysts are searching for the next support and resistance levels. The older “gurus” of Wall Street are digging into their memories to recall what happened during the two largest periods of coordinated dollar weakening over the past 50 years. After the abolition of the Bretton Woods agreement in 1971, the S&P 500 gained just +5% over six years in nominal terms. Over the same period, Germany’s DAX soared +160% and Japan’s Nikkei +450%. Ten years later, after the Plaza Accord in 1985, a similar dynamic emerged: the S&P +54% over five years, the DAX +80%, the Nikkei +130%. Today things are different. Non-U.S. investors now hold nearly $20 trillion in U.S. equities — five times the amount in 2008. Of these, according to Morgan Stanley, more than 50% of European positions are not hedged against currency risk. As the “weak dollar” policy unfolds, Europeans will need to cover their currency exposure with FX hedge contracts. In practice, this means selling dollars. Given the scale of these capital flows, we are talking about structural pressure. But if, instead of hedging, they choose to dump large positions in U.S. equities to avoid currency losses, then the game changes. Trump’s plan is based on abundant available liquidity, which will grow even further once interest-rate cuts begin. The question is whether the ever-increasing liquidity will choose American assets — or change direction.