The future is uncertain for Bashar al-Assad and his family, who fled to Russia after his overthrow ended more than 50 years of ruling Syria by the same family.

Bashar al-Assad, shortly before Damascus fell into rebel hands, fled to Russia, where he has been offered political asylum. Analysts believe that there is no scenario for his return to Syria, and he is not expected to appear in public again, preferring to live a life of obscurity.

Why has Assad fled to Russia?

Russiawas a staunch ally of Assad during the Syrian civil war and has two key military bases in the Middle Eastern country. In 2015, its air campaign turned the tide of the war in favor of the deposed president.

However, because of the war in Ukraine, Russia was either unwilling or unable to continue to support the deposed president in his effort to stop the lightning rebel offensive that began in late November.

Hours after the rebels captured Damascus, Russian media reported that Bashar al-Assad and his family had arrived in Moscow and would be granted asylum on “humanitarian grounds.” It was explained that the granting of political asylum was decided by Bladimir Putin, who, however, does not intend to meet with his former counterpart.

The luxury apartments in Moscow

Bashar al-Assad already had ties to Moscow. A 2019 Financial Times investigation found that Assad’s extended family had bought at least 18 luxury apartments in the Russian capital in an attempt to keep tens of millions of dollars out of Syria during the civil war.

Meanwhile, Assad’s eldest son, Hafez, is a doctoral student in the Russian capital.

Also in Moscow is Asma Assad, a British and Syrian national, born and raised by Syrian parents in west London. However, the US has imposed sanctions on her father, Fawaz al-Ahras, who is also reportedly in Syria with his wife.

The family’s assets

According to a 2022 report by the State Department to Congress, the extended Assad family has a fortune of between $1 billion and $2 billion. However, the assets are difficult to estimate, as they are believed to be scattered and hidden in numerous accounts, real estate portfolios, companies, and offshore tax havens.

Bashar al-Assad and Asma maintained “close client relationships with Syria’s biggest financial players, using their companies to launder money from illicit activities and funnel funds to the regime”. At the same time, Asma was influential in the economic committee that managed Syria’s ongoing economic crisis and made key decisions on food and fuel subsidies, trade, and monetary issues in the country. At the same time, it also exerted influence on the fund that received the bulk of foreign aid for the reconstruction of regime-controlled areas.

In 2020, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said Asma had “become one of Syria’s most notorious war profiteers” with the help of her husband and family. Another Trump administration official had described her as the business head of the family and an oligarch.

Could Assad face criminal prosecution?

In any case, the fall of the Assad regime brings back the issues of prosecutions for massive human rights violations on a massive scale. Many are targeting his behaviour and issues of criminal prosecution are being raised.

However, Russia does not extradite its nationals. As such, it is considered unlikely that Assad would leave Russia to go to a country that could extradite him back to Syria or any country that could charge him with a crime.

The obscurity after the escape

However, analysts believe that Bashar al-Assad and his family will stay away from any extravagant lifestyle in Russia and choose to remain hidden in a secluded estate and protected from public view.

David Lesch, a Syria expert at Trinity University in Texas, who has met Assad many times, told the Guardian that in Assad’s mind, Putin can best protect his family from extradition or any other attempt by the international community to bring him to justice. Meanwhile, Asma, who was diagnosed with leukemia in May, is expected to receive appropriate treatment.

Assad’s relations with Putin received a political boost in 2015 when Russia intervened in the Syrian civil war. In the following years, Assad’s children, along with descendants of the Syrian elite, spent their holidays at summer camps in Russian-occupied Crimea. However, Vladimir Putin’s relationship with Bashar al-Assad seems to remain cold.

Now, Assad is expected to live a sheltered but comfortable life with Putin in charge, under the strict supervision of Russian security officers.