A surge of popular support for Ekrem Imamoglu is evident in Turkey‘s opinion polls at a time when polarizing conditions are taking shape in the political scene.

The detention of the mayor of Constantinople last March has sparked the biggest protests in decades in Turkey, with Imamoglu himself appearing to have a significant lead over Tayyip Erdogan in the polls.

Erdogan’s main rival

Two surveys released in recent days suggest that Imamoglu‘s imprisonment on March 19 has also reinforced the view that he is Erdogan’s main rival in any future presidential election, even if he is behind bars.

Ekrem Imamoglu was taken into custody on March 23 and charged with corruption. He denies the charges. At the same time, the Turkish judiciary’s decision has sparked a backlash, with the opposition and European leaders calling it politically motivated and undemocratic.

Erdogan’s Turkish government rejects the criticism and claims the judiciary is independent.

It is not clear when Imamoglu, who has served two terms as mayor, will be tried, nor whether he will be released from prison. Investigations are continuing after he and more than 100 other officials in Turkey’s largest city were arrested on various charges.

What the polls show

Surveys conducted in April by Metropoll and Konda show that Imamoglu would comfortably lead Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel between them – although elections are not due to be held before 2028.

Surveys also show that since the mayor’s arrest nearly two months ago, Turkish voters have become even more polarized between Erdogan’s AKP, Erdogan’s party, and Imamoglu’s Republican People’s Party (CHP), which is the largest opposition party.

“If the election were held today and Imamoglu and Erdogan were to go through to the second round of voting, Imamoglu would win by seven percentage points,” says Özer Sençar, head of research at Metropoll, which puts the mayor’s support at 46.7 percent and that of the president at 39.3 percent.

Metropoll found that, after March, support for both the CHP and AKP increased by about five percentage points, to 34 percent and 33 percent respectively, largely because voters who were previously undecided chose sides.

The early election factor

Erdogan, who was last elected in 2023, cannot run again under the law unless early elections are called and he is backed by three-fifths of parliament, meaning he will need support beyond his ruling conservative coalition.

A CHP public declaration calling for Imamoglu’s release and early elections has surpassed 13 million signatures, according to Milliyet newspaper. The party did not respond when asked to update this number.

The Konda poll showed support for Imamoglu rose well over 40 percent in April, more than the previous month, and would comfortably lead Erdogan in a hypothetical electoral duel between them, according to Aydin Erdem, general manager of that Constantinople-based firm.

Erdogan came out on top when respondents were asked to choose from a wider list of nine potential candidates, Konda found.

But the number of undecided voters fell significantly in April compared with March, with most backing one of the two men, suggesting the mayor’s imprisonment has reinforced a “growing polarization” in political affairs, Erdem said.

What will determine Imamoglu’s success

The results of the Konda and Metropoll investigations have not been widely publicized, except by those who commissioned the investigations. Some previous polls had shown that support for Imamoglu was running at similarly high levels, including before his decisive victory in last year’s municipal elections.

The day before Imamoglu was arrested, authorities canceled his university degree, which is required by law to run for president. The day he was jailed, the CHP elected him as its official presidential candidate.

The head of another polling firm, Mehmet Ali Kulat of MAK, said the future success of Imamoglu and the CHP would largely depend on whether other opposition parties, particularly the pro-Kurdish DEM, which had previously backed the CHP, would offer their support.