Hello, unfortunately yesterday dawned an equally bad day as the day before, with yet another tragic accident in Romania leaving seven Greek fans dead who were traveling to see their favorite team, PAOK, in Lyon. So today, too, there are no words to describe the shock, the grief, a big “why.” One city, one country, and the whole world that celebrates sport plunged into mourning and sorrow. Let’s hope it never happens again if it can be avoided.

Change of plans

• The two tragedies in Trikala and Romania essentially change Mitsotakis’ plans for the coming days. I hear that the scheduled interview with Papachelas, which was supposed to air on Thursday, is now moving to Monday, while the pre-conference of New Democracy, which was set for Saturday in Ioannina to kick off the pre-conference cycle leading to the May conference, is also being postponed.

Traffic meeting

• Today after 10:00 a.m., a broad meeting on traffic will take place at M.M., which some only “discovered” the day before yesterday, although it had been a central topic in our newspaper two Sundays ago. The main presentation will be given by Deputy Minister Kyranakis, who has prepared various measures for truck traffic in urban areas, alternative routes, moving the logistics center, etc., and already has very good cooperation with Chrysochoidis on accident management and breathalyzer tests. We’ll see after the meeting how ready the government is to make decisions, although at this stage we’re still in brainstorming mode.

Maria’s communication team

• You may have noticed that President Maria now intervenes only through social media posts. In fact, she canceled a scheduled interview on Open on Monday afternoon, and this is not the first time recently. I hear that in the past few days her team has been strengthened with some “communications specialists” advising her not to appear live yet, as she is not ready to answer everything in full. However, if professionals in the field advised her to say what she did about Turkey, I don’t see them having much future. I also hear that former MP of NIKI and honorary judge Giorgos Apostolakis has taken an active role in the soon-to-be-established party. The one publicly denying any involvement is Aris Spiliotopoulos. How did the rumor start? First, because he’s politically homeless again—he left Kasselakis—and second, because he publicly speaks well of President Maria. Anyway, Aris is always sic with his fashionable checkered blazer, calls himself a strategic analyst, and comments on everything that exists.

PASOK – Continuation of scenarios…

• Now I’ve already given you my opinion on PASOK and our president Nikos: I don’t believe at all that he will leave his chair, not even with a forceful push. I think the most likely scenario is that he’ll be removed after the ballots, although some people who aren’t completely uninformed in life tell me, “Don’t be so sure that Nikos won’t form a government with Mitsotakis. I mean, would he rather retire at 47 and miss out on greatness?” But there are also other sources, green, bright green, telling me that Androulakis won’t make it to the ballots. The reason, according to them, is that “the only one Nikos hasn’t quarreled with yet is his mirror” (the truth is he’s a good guy). From his own people, like Spyropoulos, who won’t harm him but still grumbles about the president, to journalists who traditionally supported him due to PASOK roots… as the saying goes, since forever. Again, personally I don’t believe it. It’s well known I’m not obsessed with the leader, but I don’t see how, with the party in its current state of decay, Pavlos—currently the frontrunner—could topple him.

Milos – Cyclades

• Yesterday, after the journalistic uproar over the “ecological crime” in Milos and the government actions, the Council of State temporarily blocked construction at the White Coast hotel. You might ask, where has the Council of State been all this time, and only “moved” when it saw a fuss? The answer is: same old story. The municipality also issued a long statement claiming that thanks to its actions the construction was stopped, etc., etc. All good, bravo to the municipality, the Council of State, and everyone who did… their job properly all these months, but apparently it took a citizen sending a video to a media outlet (protothema.gr) and many good outlets highlighting it to stop the concrete monstrosity. Now, on the substance, and since inspections will be done, the Transparency Authority will also go to the island. It’s good to check 5–6 other similar “monsters” being built there and elsewhere in Milos and verify their legality. If they don’t know, they can ask the municipality; they’ve probably seen them. One small note for the company that issued a statement saying everything is legal: fine, if everything is legal, the authorities will check and decide. But that the Mytakas building isn’t near Sarakiniko, as the statement says, is totally false and crude—it’s right next to it, folks. The rest will be discussed once the Transparency Authority checks the full file from the start of the investment. Wait until the inspection is complete and then…

JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley warn of low pressure at the stock market

• The scenario of index upgrades and changes caused pressure on stocks in yesterday’s session, as analysts expect reshuffling and therefore outflows. JP Morgan considers the return of the Greek stock market to developed market indices harmful and shows it. Ahead of the MSCI processes, the American investment giant sees a possible upgrade of the Greek market during rebalancing next August, much earlier than expected, but warns that Greece will lose more than it gains. This is because the Greek market will be lost among the big markets, with minimal weighting in developed market indices (around 0.06% in MSCI World, 0.38% in MSCI Europe, and 0.25% in MSCI EAFE), down from 0.58% in MSCI Emerging Markets today, with only five (instead of eight) stocks in the MSCI Greece basket: National Bank, Eurobank, Piraeus Bank, Alpha Bank, and PPC. Moreover, the historical precedent of the 2001 upgrade suggests the result could be neutral to negative for flows and market visibility. Similarly, Morgan Stanley noted yesterday that Greece moves from a “medium player” in the emerging category to a very small size in the developed market universe, warning of turbulence at the Athens Stock Exchange.

When MSCI breaks its own rules for Greece

• MSCI announced the day before yesterday afternoon that it started the consultation for upgrading Greece from Emerging to Developed Market in August 2026, creating new expectations at the Stock Exchange. The interesting part of the announcement is not the “IF” but the “HOW” the decision was made. MSCI violated its own rules. The technical problem: Greece did not meet the “persistency” rule, which requires at least five listed companies to meet Developed Market criteria for eight consecutive reviews. On the other hand, major international institutional investors (probably including Euronext) sent a clear message that, as the EU is a single economic space, treating Greece differently seemed inconsistent. MSCI backtracked and justified the “Greek exception” by citing the integration of the European market: harmonized infrastructure, regulatory convergence, cross-border accessibility. The depth of the Greek capital market increased; accessibility reforms brought Greece closer to European standards. Regarding market size, it was deemed comparable to other small developed markets, without index replication issues. What happened behind the scenes before the announcement is perhaps more important. MSCI acknowledges Greece is no longer an exception in the Eurozone but part of a homogeneous financial bloc. Investors do not see Greek risk, they see a European asset. Consultation closes March 16, decision comes March 31. But when MSCI breaks its own rules to upgrade you, the outcome seems preordained.

Tolis Vakakis ready for anything

• Despite stock market adversities, Tolis (Apostolos) Vakakis has not lost any of his cheer. As every month, in a few days at the end of January he will give guidance, and the figures he presents—so it’s said—will not justify market concerns. Regarding his investors, he is preparing to face them in person and answer all questions on Wednesday, 4/2, at Jumbo’s General Assembly.

Bank rally with an MSCI flavor at the Stock Exchange

• The upgrade scenario sent bank stocks soaring, which were the stars at yesterday’s stock market session. They have been outperforming themselves since the start of 2026, but yesterday’s performance exceeded even the most optimistic expectations. National Bank led the upward surge with a 6.6% rally, marking its best session in the last 2.5 years. It reached the edges of €15.8 and is “eyeing” €16 for the first time since November 2015. The MSCI signal to upgrade Greece to developed market status triggered a spike in bank trading, especially for National Bank, with turnover hitting €175 million, corresponding to over 11 million shares. More than 20 million shares changed hands at Alpha Bank and nearly 19 million at Eurobank. Trades of the systemic banks exceeded €415 million yesterday, accounting for almost 55% of the total turnover of €642 million. Eurobank rallied over 4%, reaching the decade-high of €4.2, while its market cap now exceeds €15 billion, “closing the gap” with Coca-Cola HBC, the most valuable listed company on the Athens Exchange with a valuation of €16.7 billion. Piraeus Bank rose above €8.5, levels unseen since March 2021. Alpha Bank broke the €4 barrier for the first time in a decade, moving toward a double-digit market cap (currently valued at €9.6 billion). The systemic banks’ momentum was followed by Bank of Cyprus, which extended its historic record, closing well above the previous resistance of €9.

A frenzy from retail investors

• It should be noted that yesterday the trading volume in banks was very high and obviously includes foreign orders, but information from brokerage firms with broad retail client bases indicates a frenzy from retail investors aggressively buying banks. Conditions have changed, of course, but those with memories from 1999 should not feel comfortable seeing JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley issuing warnings while Greek retail investors buy aggressively.

Euronext explores OASIS

• And we wrap up with the Athens Exchange preparing for the transition to the Euronext environment. The road is naturally long, and the task demanding. For this reason, senior executives of the financial giant are already stationed in Athens, including Sebastien d’Herbès, head of the integration department for the Athens Exchange into Euronext, who also joined the new board of HELEX. Meanwhile, people are coming and going from various Euronext departments, video calls are continuous, and efforts are being made to accelerate the integration of the Greek capital market into Euronext. This will take significant time, especially in the technological integration segment. For example, as insiders say, Euronext first needs to understand OASIS, the Integrated Automated Trading System central to the Athens Exchange for over 25 years, to decide what and how it can be maintained or “fitted” into the pan-European Eurobext platform based in Paris, which manages seven European stock markets.

Greek Tower reaches 40th floor

• Ten floors remain for the Residential Tower in the large redevelopment project of the former airport site. Work on the project’s tallest landmark, run by LAMDA Development, has already reached the 40th floor for a building that will ultimately reach 200 meters, comprising 50 floors with 170 apartments. Construction is accelerating at this stage, aiming for delivery a bit over a year from now, from mid-2027 onward.

Request for replacement of Progressive’s Board submitted by Ch.L. Koutla

• The market value of “Progressive ATE” (-4.31% at €0.4/share) has fallen below €10 million. Some shareholders appear to be trying to abandon ship before the captain changes. The current Board avoids providing updates. A new apparent shareholder majority has formed and demands an accounting of the current board’s actions. The question is no longer whether the Board will be replaced, but when. The request may be submitted in the coming days. Major shareholder Chrysa-Lemonia Koutla accuses the Board of systematically delaying the General Assembly and refusing to provide key information regarding a contract with an offshore company from the British Virgin Islands. LDA Capital, the mysterious “American investor,” who has been compensated for four years, has never appeared to present its business plan. This alone raises legality issues. Koutla’s team argues that the contract’s non-execution for three years provides legal grounds for a long court battle across multiple jurisdictions. Meanwhile, stock exchange data shows steady share selling by two Cypriot companies, JESSORE and TAMPICO, which until recently supported the current Board’s choices. The sister of the late Kostas Koutlas believes that after five years with zero capital from the “American investor” and zero turnover, it’s time to replace the current management. In the last quarter, the stock has lost -10% of its already meager value. The Board obviously refuses to resign, and the shareholder majority is preparing its own actions for dismissal.

One-third of European Dynamics goes to BNP and ABRY Partners

• French private equity CAPZA – part of the BNP group – and US high-tech private equity ABRY Partners recently completed an investment in European Dynamics. The IT company already operates in more than 30 countries, employs over 1,200 scientists, and so far has grown organically, with acquisitions also becoming part of its strategy. The new investors now hold about one-third of the group together. Unconfirmed reports suggest the deal closed with a valuation above $400 million. The main shareholder of European Dynamics recently made a €22 million donation to establish an investment fund (www.starcinco.eu) benefiting military personnel in Greece, Cyprus, and Armenia. Informal sources say ABRY Partners is connected to Jeb Bush (brother of the former US President) and former UK Prime Minister David Cameron.

Rumors fueling ElvalHalcor

• Last September, a major fire occurred at Novelis’ Oswego plant, which produced 40% of the aluminum needed by the US auto industry. This reportedly created a “window of opportunity” for ElvalHalcor, said to be in the right place at the right time. Ford faces $1.5–2 billion in losses and 100,000 vehicles delayed due to aluminum shortages. Alternative suppliers are few. ElvalHalcor, with the second-largest hot rolling plant in Europe and IATF 16949 certification for the automotive sector, is among a very small list of suppliers. It already serves Mercedes. Recently, rumors have circulated, not yet confirmed, that the Greek listed company received a request to supply quality samples and is in discussions with Ford. Novelis had promised to resume operations by late December, but full production has not yet started, and automotive-quality aluminum testing takes weeks. Ford needs solutions now, and ElvalHalcor – exporting 86% of its production to 100 countries – has the technical infrastructure and certification to deliver. If tests confirm quality, this is not a temporary fix, but entry into a supply chain Greece has never accessed. In the last month, ELVAL’s stock has gained over +8%, and its market cap has surpassed €1.6 billion.

Silver has different prices in China vs. the West

• When Shanghai’s premium over the Western silver price skyrockets to $26/oz, triple the previous record of $7 in 2011, this is not just an arbitrage opportunity. There is a serious structural problem in global production. In Shanghai, silver surpassed $130/oz for the first time in history. In Western markets, the same metal trades around $100. Markets say there is no physical silver to move from West to East to close the spread. If there were, someone would have done it. Currently, the Chinese market acts like a vacuum for silver, absorbing what ETFs, bullion banks, and COMEX cannot deliver. Demand appears non-speculative, tied to industrial needs and stockpiling, in a country treating derivatives as paper and physical metal as insurance. Global silver production cannot meet this demand. Mines don’t work overnight, recycling is insufficient, and Western warehouse stocks are depleting. Shanghai’s premium reveals that the global silver market operates on fractional reserves. Futures contracts exist, but no physical product is available for delivery. When the price premium reaches 3.5 times the historical high, it is not just market noise. It signals a broken supply chain for precious metals, felt more keenly in China than elsewhere.

The vicious cycle of dollar depreciation

• “The IMF is preparing for the possibility of rapid selling of US dollar assets,” said its Managing Director, Kristalina Georgieva, according to Euractiv. Markets have “smelled” the Trump administration’s plan, which on one hand wants a strong US economy, but on the other wants a weaker dollar to support the industrial rebound. The problem: a strong economy and a weak dollar don’t coexist—from the 1960s to today. Import tariffs haven’t revived US industry. American products remain expensive internationally. A bike costing $1,000 may sell for €800 with a weak dollar or €1,200 with a strong one. The difference determines competitiveness. The White House pressures the Fed to aggressively cut rates below European levels to weaken the currency. Today, US rates are higher (3.5–4%) than Europe (2%), China (3%), and Japan (<1%). The dollar is strong because it offers higher returns. The market sees the deadlock. Every time the POTUS threatens Powell, the dollar index barely moves, while gold and Bitcoin soar. In the past two years, US stocks rose +50%, gold +130%, Bitcoin +200%. The dollar isn’t depreciating against other major currencies; it’s depreciating against real assets. There is no “external weakening” of the dollar without “internal devaluation” and inflation. Markets know this.